ANALYSIS OF VARICELLA MORBIDITY IN THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA, IN THE PRE- AND POST-COVID-19 PERIODS

Abstract

Objectives. To evaluate the dynamics of varicella morbidity in the Republic of Moldova during 2015–2025, including a descriptive analysis of the pre-pandemic (2015–2019) and post-pandemic (2022–2025) periods, and to characterize the distribution of cases by age and area of residence.

Methods. An observational, descriptive, retrospective epidemiological study was conducted using aggregated data from the national epidemiological surveillance system, reported through Statistical Form No. 2-san, “Statistical Report on Infectious and Parasitic Diseases”, and annual national reports for the period 2015–2025. Overall incidence was calculated as the ratio of the annual number of reported cases to the corresponding annual population and expressed per 100,000 population. For age groups, rates were calculated per 1,000 population within the respective age group.

Results. Varicella incidence ranged from 151.13 to 383.73 cases per 100,000 population. The lowest values were recorded in 2020–2021, in the context of measures implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic. After 2022, incidence increased, reaching its highest value in 2025. Regarding age distribution, children aged 3–6 years were the most affected group, recording the highest morbidity rates, followed by children aged 0–2 years. Territorial analysis showed a consistently higher incidence in urban areas compared with rural areas.

Conclusions. The findings demonstrate persistent circulation of varicella and substantial temporal variations in morbidity throughout the study period. The increase in morbidity during the post-pandemic period is compatible with the hypothesis of an accumulation of susceptible individuals during epidemiological restrictions and the resumption of social contacts after their removal. The upward trend in morbidity observed during the post-pandemic period (2022–2025) supports the need to strengthen epidemiological surveillance and to evaluate the potential introduction of varicella vaccination into the National Immunization Programme.